More homes are for sale — but not at the right price point
A new report from NAR and Realtor.com found that households earning $100k or less can afford far fewer homes today compared to before the pandemic.
Key points:
- Families making $75,000 annually can afford just 21.2% of listings, which translates to a deficit of 416,000 homes.
- Just six years ago, the housing market was relatively balanced for middle-income households.
- Building modestly priced homes has become more challenging as costs have increased, but zoning and other reforms could help spur development.
More listings are coming on the market, but that doesn't mean today's buyers can afford them.
The Housing Affordability & Supply report released by Realtor.com and the National Association of Realtors on May 15 found that while inventory has increased in the past year, those gains have done little to take the pressure off most middle-income buyers.
For the middle class, most homes are out of reach
For households making $100,000 a year, an affordable home tops out at $340,000. To achieve a balanced market for that group, the U.S. would need 364,000 more listings in that range. Currently, those households can afford just 37.1% of the available listings, compared to 64.7% before the pandemic, according to the report.
Middle-income households earning $75,000 a year — think nurses, teachers and skilled workers — can afford a home priced at or below $255,000. The country has a deficit of 416,000 homes at that level, meaning those households are limited to just 21.2% of listings; in 2019, they could afford nearly 49% of the homes for sale.
For both income groups, an affordable home would need to be priced far lower than the median existing home price, which was nearly $404,000 in March.
Low-income families earning $50,000 a year have little chance of buying a home, as they can afford only 8.7% of the listings available.
Can we build our way out of the problem?
Building a modestly priced home is no simple task these days, according to Nadia Evangelou, director of Real Estate Research at NAR, making it more difficult for the country to solve the affordability crisis.
"It's not that builders don't want to build more affordable homes — it's that they often can't make the math work. Between rising land costs, zoning rules and the price of materials, it's hard to build a home under $255,000 today," Evangelou said.
And if the economy falls into a recession, that could create even more challenges.
"There just aren't enough homes in the price range that most people can afford. During an economic downturn, builders often pull back even more, and that could actually worsen the housing supply shortage," Evangelou said.
Balance is improving in some markets — but most have work to do
The report analyzed the 100 largest metro areas and broke them into three categories: "getting closer to balance"; "stuck in the middle," where supply and demand are misaligned but not at crisis levels; and "falling further behind," where the affordability gap is widening.
Balance was improving in 30% of the markets, with more affordable homes available for households at various income levels and a gap of less than 10 percentage points between what buyers can afford and the price of homes for sale.
The largest share of metros (44%) fell into the "middle" category. Some of the cities that saw rapid price increases during the pandemic fell into this group, but a few — including Austin, Salt Lake City and Denver — are now making progress through a mix of new construction, market shifts and local policy efforts, the report noted.
"But here's the catch: Despite these big gains, these metros are still not affordable yet. Their housing supply gaps remain wide," according to the report.
The remaining metro areas (26%) are falling further behind. Most were in California and the Northeast, but Miami topped the list of cities with the largest affordability gap.
What to do about it
To achieve greater balance, governments, developers and communities must take a multifaceted approach, the report concluded.
That includes coming up with a targeted plan that focuses on adding affordable homes where demand is strongest and the gaps are the greatest, while also reforming zoning regulations to spur development and expanding vocational training programs to increase the construction industry's labor pool. Another tactic? Reduce the square footage.
"If the promising trend of building smaller homes continues, that could be a meaningful step toward easing the housing affordability gap for more buyers."