Fed rate hike less likely after job gains miss the mark
A weaker labor market may cool inflation and push rates down, which could rally homebuyers. But fewer job changes and wage boosts could also hurt the market.
October 2, 2026
By the Numbers
Making sense of the data that impacts residential real estate.
- More economic volatility likely as mortgage rates near 7.5%Investors will have a lot to think about next week as key economic data releases start filtering in and Q3 of 2026 comes to an end.September 25, 2026
- Home purchase cancellations likely as rates hit 20-month highMore buyers are backing out, rates are still rising and loan applications are slowing. The one bright spot in the latest batch of economic data: new home sales.September 24, 2026
- Gen Z buyers willing to cut spending, accept higher ratesAmong all homebuying generations today, Gen Z is most willing to make sacrifices to create a path to homeownership, according to new Cotality data.September 23, 2026
More in By the Numbers
- Builders proceed cautiously with single-family home constructionElevated material costs, high energy prices and labor shortages are continuing to pressure the construction market, with builder confidence now at a 2026 low.September 17, 2026
- Sellers face a tough choice as 7% mortgage rates suppress demandReducing prices or delisting may be the most viable options for homesellers in some markets as higher borrowing costs continue to deter buyers.September 17, 2026
- Path to lower mortgage rates ‘highly uncertain’ after Fed hikeThe Fed raised short-term rates by a quarter point today for the first time since July 2023. Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are expected to remain elevated.September 16, 2026
- Investors, not the Fed, may influence where mortgage rates go nextIt’s a big week for the Fed, which could raise short-time rates for the first time in over 3 years, but mortgage rates may respond more to investor reactions.Updated September 15, 2026
- Fed ‘will most likely hike’ rates after ‘surprise’ inflation dataInflation, a top focus for the central bank, rose in August, with core inflation higher than expected. Analysts now put the odds of a rate hike at nearly 90%.September 11, 2026
- Mortgage rates top 7% as odds of a Fed hike surgeDaily rates hit 7.07% on Thursday, and analysts increasingly expect to see a rate hike next week. Meanwhile, existing home sales and mortgage applications fell.September 10, 2026
- Will data centers impact housing? The picture is still fuzzyThere are many strong opinions about the proliferation of data centers, but so far, the impact on the residential real estate market appears to be minimal.September 9, 2026
- Report counters ‘popular narratives’ of housing supply crisisA recent Zelman & Associates analysis suggests that while the nation’s housing supply is nearly in balance with demand, a shortage of affordable units remains.September 5, 2026
- Strong jobs report puts focus on inflation ahead of Fed meetingThe U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August and 55,000 more jobs than first reported in June and July — data economists say makes the Fed more likely to raise rates.September 4, 2026
- Odds of a rate hike now 50-50 following Fed governor's speechChristopher Waller said the Fed shouldn’t hike short-term interest rates unless inflation worsens. Mortgage rates, however, are still rising for now.September 3, 2026
- Mortgage rates approach 7% as Fed official floats rate hikeThe central bank “should act decisively to raise” short-term interest rates if inflation doesn’t start trending downward, Fed Governor Michael Barr said.September 1, 2026
- Economists betting on a rate hike after Fed chair speechIn hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh praised the economy’s strength but warned that inflation remains “too high.”August 28, 2026
- New listings inch up, but homebuyer demand has dropped offWhile inventory has continued to creep up in the final days of the month, less homebuyer competition is expected in the coming weeks as the summer winds down.August 27, 2026
- Buyers casting a wider net in search of their next homeAffordability is the main factor driving buyers to search for homes outside the metro where they already live, according to two new reports from Realtor.com.August 26, 2026
- Builders ‘changing what they sell’ to combat lagging salesPrices of new homes continued to fall in July as consumer demand remained weak, with Census Bureau data showing a 10.5% month-over-month drop in sales.August 25, 2026
- Home purchase breakeven point continues to riseIt takes about 15 years to save for a down payment and benefit financially from buying vs. renting, up from 11 years in 2019, according to a recent report.August 24, 2026
- Higher mortgage rates expected for the remainder of the yearWhile rates dipped slightly this week, bond market volatility could mean a bumpy road ahead, and Fannie Mae is now forecasting rates at 6.8% by year-end.August 20, 2026
- Pending sales, housing starts fell in July as rates climbedSigned contracts were down on a monthly and annual basis in all U.S. regions, while single-family home starts slowed to the lowest level since November 2022.August 18, 2026
- Buyers have more options, negotiating power as demand slumpsMortgage rates changed little in response to new jobs and inflation data, but sellers are still increasingly outnumbering buyers in a sign of weakening demand.August 13, 2026
- ‘Low turn, slow burn’ housing market kept sales down in JulyExisting home sales fell 1.7% from June, with sales on pace to match last year’s rate. One bright spot: affordability improved nationwide, according to NAR.August 11, 2026
