Investors, not the Fed, may influence where mortgage rates go next
It’s a big week for the Fed, which could raise short-time rates for the first time in over 3 years, but mortgage rates may respond more to investor reactions.
September 14, 2026
By the Numbers
Making sense of the data that impacts residential real estate.
- Mortgage rates top 7% as odds of a Fed hike surgeDaily rates hit 7.07% on Thursday, and analysts increasingly expect to see a rate hike next week. Meanwhile, existing home sales and mortgage applications fell.September 10, 2026
- Will data centers impact housing? The picture is still fuzzyThere are many strong opinions about the proliferation of data centers, but so far, the impact on the residential real estate market appears to be minimal.September 9, 2026
- Report counters ‘popular narratives’ of housing supply crisisA recent Zelman & Associates analysis suggests that while the nation’s housing supply is nearly in balance with demand, a shortage of affordable units remains.September 5, 2026
More in By the Numbers
- Strong jobs report puts focus on inflation ahead of Fed meetingThe U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August and 55,000 more jobs than first reported in June and July — data economists say makes the Fed more likely to raise rates.September 4, 2026
- Odds of a rate hike now 50-50 following Fed governor's speechChristopher Waller said the Fed shouldn’t hike short-term interest rates unless inflation worsens. Mortgage rates, however, are still rising for now.September 3, 2026
- Mortgage rates approach 7% as Fed official floats rate hikeThe central bank “should act decisively to raise” short-term interest rates if inflation doesn’t start trending downward, Fed Governor Michael Barr said.September 1, 2026
- Economists betting on a rate hike after Fed chair speechIn hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh praised the economy’s strength but warned that inflation remains “too high.”August 28, 2026
- New listings inch up, but homebuyer demand has dropped offWhile inventory has continued to creep up in the final days of the month, less homebuyer competition is expected in the coming weeks as the summer winds down.August 27, 2026
- Buyers casting a wider net in search of their next homeAffordability is the main factor driving buyers to search for homes outside the metro where they already live, according to two new reports from Realtor.com.August 26, 2026
- Builders ‘changing what they sell’ to combat lagging salesPrices of new homes continued to fall in July as consumer demand remained weak, with Census Bureau data showing a 10.5% month-over-month drop in sales.August 25, 2026
- Home purchase breakeven point continues to riseIt takes about 15 years to save for a down payment and benefit financially from buying vs. renting, up from 11 years in 2019, according to a recent report.August 24, 2026
- Higher mortgage rates expected for the remainder of the yearWhile rates dipped slightly this week, bond market volatility could mean a bumpy road ahead, and Fannie Mae is now forecasting rates at 6.8% by year-end.August 20, 2026
- Pending sales, housing starts fell in July as rates climbedSigned contracts were down on a monthly and annual basis in all U.S. regions, while single-family home starts slowed to the lowest level since November 2022.August 18, 2026
- Buyers have more options, negotiating power as demand slumpsMortgage rates changed little in response to new jobs and inflation data, but sellers are still increasingly outnumbering buyers in a sign of weakening demand.August 13, 2026
- ‘Low turn, slow burn’ housing market kept sales down in JulyExisting home sales fell 1.7% from June, with sales on pace to match last year’s rate. One bright spot: affordability improved nationwide, according to NAR.August 11, 2026
- Homeowner equity hits new high even as underwater mortgages riseMortgage holder equity reached $18 trillion in June, but a growing share of borrowers in Texas and Florida are either underwater, behind on payments, or both.August 10, 2026
- Cooling labor market changes the equation for interest ratesThough a lackluster jobs report and weaker wage growth may sap consumer confidence, these factors could prompt the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates.August 7, 2026
- Stumbling housing market may have already hit its 2026 peakWhile closed home sales perked up in July, pending sales and mortgage application data suggests another market slowdown is on the way.August 6, 2026
- Gen Z homebuyers focused more on cost than locationAspiring Gen Z homeowners would rather change ZIP codes than increase their budgets, and finding the “right” home trumps buying one quickly, a new survey finds.August 4, 2026
- Real estate goes through cycles — but this one is out of orbitSome economists say the four-phase housing market cycle has been consistent for decades. But the current market’s “correction” phase isn’t behaving as expected.August 1, 2026
- The housing market’s summer slumber intensifies as rates riseThe highest mortgage rates of the year are hitting at a time when home sales are already starting their seasonal slowdown, further suppressing activity.July 30, 2026
- US housing market drawing less interest from foreign buyersThe number of U.S. homes purchased by international buyers fell 14% year-over-year — the second-lowest level in NAR records dating back to 2009.July 30, 2026
- ‘The Fed’s on the case,’ Chair Warsh says as rate pause holdsThe FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. The central bank has not adjusted short-term interest rates since its December 2025 meeting.July 29, 2026
