By the Numbers

The national inventory crunch and missed opportunities during the pandemic have left many under 35 unable to afford the ability to strike out on their own.

Though the Fed held short-term interest rates steady at its June meeting, several officials now anticipate at least one rate hike before the end of the year.

Pending home sales beat expectations for the month, rising 3.8% since April even as mortgage rates hovered around 6.5% and inflation hit a three-year high.

NAR’s chief economist initially expected existing home sales to jump 14% in 2026. But after a lackluster spring, he no longer believes that’s in the cards.

Housing starts were way down in May but could just signal a correction after an unexpectedly strong early spring. Still, builder sentiment continues to slide.

Despite recent gains in affordability, a new Zillow analysis found that a record number of U.S. cities now have typical starter homes priced at or above $1M.

While new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might not be able to push for rate cuts right now, he may shift how the Fed handles forecasts and communications.

Pending sales remain sluggish as mortgage rates tick back up, but for buyers who are ready to commit, “the door is open” to negotiate favorable terms.

While energy prices pushed overall inflation up to 4.2% in May, core inflation was lower than expected, possibly staving off a near-term rate hike by the Fed.

Buyers have the biggest advantage in Sun Belt cities that saw a surge in home construction during the first half of the decade.

Sale closings likely benefitted from an earlier drop in mortgage rates. With rates back on the rise, the coming months may be slow for existing home sales.

May data shows an uptick in existing home sales as pending sales stay flat — signs that buyers and sellers have little momentum this spring homebuying season.

The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, which could boost consumer confidence. But it ups the odds of a June rate hike and will likely keep mortgage rates elevated.

At a time when home sales should hit their peak, both buyers and sellers are backing off, “possibly foreshadowing slower sales in the second half of the year.”

Falling prices, an uptick in pending sales and fewer price cuts could mean sunny months are ahead for the market — if inflation, mortgage rates stabilize.

The market has about 1% less inventory now than a year ago, Compass’ chief economist said. If the trend continues, buyers may see prices start to rise again.

The quirky trend can be explained in part by the flexibility of home builders as they navigate higher material costs and persistent economic uncertainty.

With mortgage rates still elevated, pending and new home sales — along with mortgage applications — have all trended down as affordability weakens.

Real estate investors are pulling back as rising homeownership costs, economic uncertainty and slowing price growth in some areas threaten to reduce profits.

Shifts in household incomes, home prices and mortgage rates will be key to housing affordability improvements in the next decade, according to Oxford Economics.