By the Numbers

Inventory improved in 2025, but affordability challenges sidelined potential buyers, while unfavorable selling conditions discouraged homeowners from listing.

Last month, pending home sales rose 3.3% compared to October and 2.6% compared to November 2024, with the biggest year-over-year jump occurring in the South.

That’s an improvement from 2022, when the timeline was twice as long, but it still puts homeownership out of reach for many consumers as savings rates decline.

Mortgage rates fell again this week, making a 2026 home purchase slightly more affordable for buyers who already have an advantage over sellers.

Existing home sales dipped year-over-year but have increased for three consecutive months, suggesting a more balanced and stable market heading into 2026.

The November CPI report was based on incomplete data, “complicating interpretation.” Plus, mortgage applications, pending sales fall as buyers remain hesitant.

The U.S. lost 105,000 jobs in October but added 64,000 in November as unemployment hit the highest mark in over four years, according to the BLS.

High home prices and elevated mortgage rates are keeping first-time buyers locked out even amidst a rise in new home inventory, according to analyst John Burns.

Don’t expect any big shifts next year, but we should see a modest uptick in home sales and slightly lower mortgage rates — and no recession.

Concerns about inflation, the labor market and the health of the U.S. economy at large could push rates higher in the coming weeks and months, economists warn.

Research from Compass’ chief economist points to slow but steady improvement next year, especially if hiring picks up and “shadow inventory” is released.

A divided Fed worried about inflation and the softening jobs market cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points on Dec. 10 — the third such cut this year.

Investors expect the central bank to cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points — but the Fed’s economic projections could keep mortgage rates sticky.

Economists say the market “widely expects” another rate cut — but the central bank will be making its next decision without key jobs and inflation data.

With the U.S. economy at a crossroads, real estate economists have differing home sales forecasts for 2026 — but most expect mortgage rates to continue to drop.

Though demand dropped off ahead of Thanksgiving, falling mortgage rates and an uptick in loan applications are good signs for the market’s slow season.

In Q3 of 2025, there was only a $30 difference in the monthly payments for typical new and existing homes, a new report from Realtor.com suggests.

Pending sales increased from September to October, but at the same time, delistings jumped as sellers feared taking a loss or settling for a lower price.

The BLS won’t be releasing any new inflation or jobs data before the Federal Reserve's final meeting of 2025, leaving FOMC members in the fog.

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group now expects home sales to rise 7.3% in 2026 — a downward revision from earlier forecasts published this fall.