Fed unlikely to change tactics despite weak jobs report 

The labor market is sending mixed messages heading into spring.

After last month's stronger-than-expected jobs report, the loss of 92,000 jobs in February — and a slight downward revision to January's numbers — signals that the year is off to a "more volatile" start than initially thought, according to Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel.

Unemployment also ticked up from 4.3% in January to 4.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest Employment Situation report.

No clear trend yet: "Overall, the first two months of the year suggest we shouldn't overreact to either January's highs or this February's lows," Krimmel advised — a sentiment echoed by San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly. 

While the report is meaningful, Daly noted, "I also don't think you should make more of it than one month of data," she told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

'Limited' chance of lower rates: The latest batch of labor market data isn't likely to have a big impact on mortgage rates. After trending lower over the past few months, the average 30-year rate briefly dipped below the 6% threshold last week — then ticked back up after the war in Iran began on Feb. 28.

But rather than "scoreboard watching" these weekly fluctuations heading into the spring homebuying season, the industry should focus on year-over-changes, Krimmel said, noting that rates are now "significantly lower" than a year ago.

Meanwhile, as long as inflation remains above the Fed's target level, "the outlook for further easing in mortgage rates heading into the spring home-buying season appears limited," according to First American Senior Economist Sam Williamson.

Jobs data 'likely reinforces the Fed's current pause': After cutting short-term interest rates three times in the second half of 2025, the central bank has indicated that it's ready to hold off on additional rate changes — and the February jobs report probably won't change that.

With unemployment relatively steady and inflation still above target, "the balance of risks remains tilted toward patience rather than urgency," Williamson said, though he noted that some Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting members may disagree.

Krimmel agreed that even while the latest jobs report "slightly complicates the labor side of the equation," it also "likely reinforces the Fed's current pause."

The next FOMC meeting will take place March 17-18.

All eyes on inflation: A sudden shift in inflation could change those calculations, however. "Policymakers were never likely to overreact to January's positive [jobs] report, and today's data keeps the focus squarely on the inflation prints arriving next week," Krimmel said.

With oil prices rising and economic uncertainty intensifying amid the war in Iran, "the big question" will be whether the economy enters a period of stagflation, which would "also mean higher mortgage rates," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

But Fed Governor Christopher Waller doesn't see that scenario playing out. "For us thinking about policy going forward, [the war] is unlikely to cause sustained inflation," Waller told Bloomberg TV.