Have mortgage rates finally reached the magic number? 

The real estate industry will soon find out if sub-6% mortgage rates will be enough to nudge homebuyers — and homeowners — off the sidelines this spring.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.98% this week, down from 6.01% one week prior, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. It's the lowest weekly average reported since September 2022, and well below the 6.76% average a year ago.

The dip was likely a response to stock market volatility rather than positive new economic data, according to Realtor.com Economist Jiayi Xu — so it's unclear whether the downward drift will continue. Either way, "it is far more encouraging than the high 6% or 7% ranges seen over the previous two spring seasons," Xu said.

While the drop below 6% was small, it could shift consumer mindsets, noted Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow.

"For many shoppers who paused their search, that psychological threshold may be enough to bring them back into the market," Ng said.

Are rates low enough?

While buyers might feel inspired to act, will the same be true for sellers? Homeowners with ultra-low, pandemic-era rates may not be as enthusiastic about this week's sub-6% rates, but that should become clearer in a couple of weeks, according to Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen. 

In his latest market update, Simonsen noted that new listings jumped last week, but he cautioned that it could be a blip. "The real read on spring demand comes in the second week of March once the weather fully settles. Until then, one week is not a trend. But this week was a pretty good one," Simonsen said.

There's reason for optimism — but plenty of other factors could impact sales this spring, according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.

"While overall economic numbers appear solid, economic uncertainty is still weighing on the minds of many prospective homebuyers and sellers," Sturtevant said in an email. 

"In addition to rates moving lower, people also are waiting for signs of stability, both in terms of rates and the economic and political environment. Wildcards like new tariffs, private-sector layoffs, changes in Federal Reserve leadership and potential international conflict could cast a shadow over the sunny lower-rate environment," Sturtevant added.

Activity relatively subdued heading into spring

If buyers are considering jumping into the market, they aren't doing it just yet: Redfin reported that pending sales were down 5.5% annually for the four-week period ending Feb. 22, and mortgage purchase applications remain sluggish. 

Overall mortgage applications increased just 0.4% for the week ending Feb. 20, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and that slight uptick was driven solely by refinance applications. The adjusted purchase index was down 5% from the week before, although it was 12% higher compared to a year ago.

Will relocating buyers lead the way?

If more homebuyers do show up this spring, many of them could be relocating, according to new data from Realtor.com. Out-of-market shoppers accounted for 61.9% of online views for homes in the 100 largest markets in the fourth quarter of 2025, Realtor.com found. That's up significantly from 2019, when fewer than half the views on the search portal (48.6%) were attributable to out-of-towners.

"Whether driven by a search for affordability in the Sun Belt or following the wave of AI-driven job opportunities in the Rust Belt and West, home shoppers are looking further afield than ever before," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.