Most buyer-friendly market in a decade isn’t moving the needle
Sellers outnumber buyers by 36.8%, according to a new Redfin report, but affordability challenges remain. However, economists say the market may shift in 2026.
The housing market has swung firmly in buyers' favor when measured by marketplace competition, though many buyers are still waiting for high home prices to drop.
A new report from Redfin found that there were 36.8% more home sellers than buyers in October — the largest gap since at least 2013. This would usually provide buyers with more negotiating power, but other factors are keeping existing home prices up about 2% year-over-year.
Buyers and sellers aren't on the same page: With the exception of sellers who are facing job changes or other major life events that may prompt them to move, many lack the motivation to lower their asking price, according to Matt Purdy, a Redfin Premier agent in the Denver area.
"Sellers want top dollar because they're focused on recouping their investment, but buyers are focused on having a low monthly payment, so there's this gap in expectations that's making it hard for buyers and sellers to see eye to eye," Purdy said in a news release accompanying Redfin's Nov. 19 report.
If someone must sell, they are less likely to win in a price negotiation because buyers have more options, Purdy noted.
Buyers still waiting in the wings: The slow market is also contending with a lack of buyer enthusiasm. Consumer sentiment remains low, while economic concerns are prompting more people to hold off on big purchases, such as a home or vehicle.
Optimism for a more affordable 2026: However, the percentage of home price reductions remains elevated — and the longer the trend of sellers outnumbering buyers lasts, the bigger the odds of affordability improving in 2026.
"There is optimism that lower mortgage rates and affordability improvements will lead to an increase in homebuying activity. But we should probably temper expectations for a big surge in sales and listings," Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said.
Which markets favor buyers most? Texas and Florida continue to have the strongest buyers markets based on the ratio of sellers to buyers. San Antonio, for example, topped the list of the 50 largest metros in October with 18,467 home sellers and only 8,497 buyers — or 117% more sellers than buyers. Austin, Texas, was second with 115% more sellers than buyers, and Miami was third at 108%.
Which markets still favor sellers? Of the 50 largest metros, Redfin's report flagged six as favoring sellers: Nassau County, New York; Newark, New Jersey; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; New Brunswick, New Jersey; Milwaukee; and Cleveland. Nassau County had the strongest sellers market with 37.4% fewer sellers than buyers.