Could a Compass-Anywhere merger violate federal guidelines?
A new report suggests that Compass would control over 30% of several urban markets — surpassing federal guidelines — if its acquisition of Anywhere proceeds.
A Compass acquisition of Anywhere Real Estate in 2026 would create a brokerage behemoth with roughly 340,000 real estate professionals servicing about 120 countries and territories, Compass said back in September when the proposed deal was announced.
But the merged companies could represent an anticompetitive presence in some markets, a new report indicates.
A closer look at DOJ, FTC guidelines: According to a new analysis from The Capitol Forum, an independent investigative outlet that focuses on how regulation impacts market competition, the Compass-Anywhere merger could create "potentially illegal overlaps" in at least 12 states' core metro markets.
Post-merger, Compass would control 30% or more of local brokerage markets across the U.S., spanning Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, parts of New York City and Washington, D.C., according to the report. The 30% mark is meaningful because market shares above that level can be treated as presumptively unlawful under the 2023 Merger Guidelines issued by the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice's (DOJ) Antitrust Division.
The research also suggests that Compass' dominance would extend beyond major metros into resort and luxury-focused markets.
Capitol Forum researchers used RealTrends Verified transaction-dollar data in determining these antitrust guidelines but noted that the data relies on voluntary submissions and minimum thresholds (25 transactions or $10 million for agents; 40 transactions or $16 million for teams), potentially undercounting smaller players and inflating market-leader share.
Higher costs for consumers? The research also highlights concerns about market power translating into higher costs. The antitrust scrutiny may become a test of how aggressively the DOJ will police real estate consolidation as housing affordability becomes a louder political issue.
If the merger goes through, Compass "is going to want a return on their money," an unnamed Anywhere-affiliated agent told The Capitol Forum. That return could "come in the form of higher commissions on the public and higher fees upon the brokers that work for them," the agent warned.
Legislators, consumer advocates raise concerns: Consumer watchdog groups — most notably the Consumer Policy Center — have previously raised concerns about the impact on consumers and the free, open market should the brokerage industry consolidate further and lean fully into Compass' private listings strategy.
The Capitol Forum's report comes amid calls for the DOJ's review to move beyond a routine rubber-stamp process. In a December 16 letter to a top DOJ antitrust official, Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Ron Wyden of Oregon suggested that the proposed deal's antitrust implications "are significant," highlighting concerns for independent firms and consumers during the market's ongoing affordability crisis.
"Ultimately, this transaction could harm consumers by making it easier for these merged firms to keep commission fees artificially high and allow the merged company to exert greater control over the real estate market, consumer access, and the homebuying process," the senators wrote.
Compass declined to comment on the Capitol Forum report.