Trends 2026: The uncertain future of real estate’s open marketplace 

Editor's note: Since 2006, the Swanepoel Trends Report has provided in-depth research and analysis to help leaders understand the forces shaping residential real estate. This exclusive series of excerpts highlights each trend featured in the 2026 report, which was released in November 2025.

The Rise and Risk of Real Estate's Comprehensive Marketplace: Real estate consumers in the U.S. have come to expect comprehensive access to property listings at the click of a button. But market share consolidation, technology that makes it easier for brokerages to market listings outside the MLS, and an increasing interest among brokerages — including the nation's largest — to capture more exclusive inventory could fracture that marketplace.

The following excerpt, taken from T3 Sixty's 2026 Trends Report, provides an overview of the exclusive listing strategy and its potential impacts on the industry.

Development of the exclusive listing strategy

For brokerages, the incentive and value of exclusive inventory increases as market share does. If a brokerage with significant listing market share deploys an exclusive listing strategy, agents at that firm benefit from having access to a larger inventory, exclusive information and a competitive edge in the market.

Professionals at other firms, and consumers shut out from the exclusive inventory, may look to join the market leader, while that brokerage offers a compelling value proposition to retain and attract agents who want access to that inventory and information for their businesses.

An increase of the exclusive listing strategy creates a reverse network effect. A brokerage with a large share of listings has more information and can provide unique value to consumers and agents. Competitors then are incentivized to withhold their listings. Eventually, the marketplace fractures to a point where its utility as a comprehensive source of listings suffers.

The practice of keeping a listing off the MLS can become more prevalent during periods of higher buyer demand and limited inventory, as buyers and their agents are more willing and eager to hunt out available properties beyond what may be widely marketed.

It is also more common in certain regions, particularly urban areas with competitive markets such as neighborhoods in Manhattan, San Francisco or Washington, DC, or major luxury markets (e.g., Silicon Valley cities in California like Palo Alto or Los Altos, Florida's Boca Grande or the Hamptons in Massachusetts).

Other regional factors, such as a high volume of private investors in the market could also mean a higher volume of off-MLS transactions, as these types of sales involve focused pools of professional buyers with clear criteria.

Market variation

In many MLS markets, brokerages do not have significant listing market share, where the potential benefits of this strategy may not materialize.

For example, a study by CRMLS, the US's second largest MLS with nearly 100,000 subscribers, found that approximately half of its listings in 2024 (46 percent) came from brokerages with less than 100 agents. The three brokerages in CRMLS with over 3,000 agents collectively supplied just 11 percent of the MLS's 2024 listings. Of course, the listings share can vary widely by specific markets within the vast CRMLS footprint.

In some markets, the listings market share for the largest brokerages can reach 30 percent or more. In these instances, brokers have significant market power and an opportunity to implement an exclusive listings strategy that can alter its competitive dynamics.

Compass in the Bay Area is an example. In the county of San Francisco, the brokerage represented sellers on 34 percent of the homes that sold in 2024, according to data provided to T3 Sixty by Lone Wolf Technologies and BrokerMetrics.

Read the full chapter: Digital and printed copies of the 2026 Swanepoel Trends Report are available for purchase at T3 Trends. 

Real Estate News is an editorially independent division of T3 Sixty.