Seller optimism high despite increased risk of taking a loss
Many sellers believe they’ll be able to sell their home at or above asking price even as market conditions are shifting, a recent survey found.
Key points:
- A recent Clever Offers survey found high optimism among future home sellers, 77% of whom don’t anticipate that lowering their asking price will be necessary.
- While most future sellers think it’s possible they’ll receive offers above asking, only 42% of survey respondents who sold a home in 2024 or 2025 actually did.
- Meanwhile, Redfin data indicates the share of sellers at risk of selling their homes at a loss has grown compared to this time last year.
Although signs point to the housing market becoming friendlier for prospective buyers, recent data suggests most sellers believe they'll have no trouble fielding offers at or above their asking price.
A Clever Offers survey found that future sellers' expectations don't quite match up to the realities of those who sold within the past year. Recent data from Redfin sheds more light on the shifting market, suggesting a year-over-year rise in the share of current sellers at risk of having to sell below asking price.
"Although some parts of the country remain highly competitive with prices near all-time highs, many others have begun to see a shift in power from sellers to buyers as demand dips and inventory grows," Clever Offers' survey analysis said. "Unfortunately for future sellers, many don't appear to have updated their expectations to the new housing market reality."
High seller expectations
Though it's not unexpected for future sellers to have a sunny outlook on their prospects, they might be overly hopeful given the current market conditions. Lower-than-expected buyer interest could translate to lower selling prices — and there are signs that this shift is on the horizon. According to an April report from Redfin, the distance between seller asking prices and buyer offers has been growing, with the largest gap since May 2020 occurring this spring.
For its survey conducted in early April, Clever Offers compiled responses from 500 adults who plan to sell a home by mid-2026 and 500 adults who sold a home between early 2024 and early 2025. It found that more than three in four (77%) future sellers believe they will not have to lower their asking price, even though 43% of recent sellers had to do exactly that.
Of the future seller respondents, 92% think their home "will generate strong interest from buyers," but only 77% of recent sellers said this expectation matched their experience.
The survey also found a gap between the willingness and need to make buyer concessions. Only 31% of recent buyers said they agreed to unexpected buyer requests, compared with 80% of future sellers who said they would be willing to do so.
Why the optimism?
Nearly 6% of sellers are now at risk of selling at a loss — a "historically low" share, according to Redfin's June 24 report, but still an uptick from this time last year.
Location could also play into seller optimism levels. Those selling a home in Providence, Rhode Island, or New Brunswick, New Jersey, would be nearly guaranteed to avoid selling at a loss, with only 0.5% of listings in each city posing that risk. The opposite was true for San Francisco, where 19.6% of homes were at risk of selling at a loss, according to Redfin's data.
Future sellers' main concern
The amount of time a home spent on the market was the one variable that inspired a dip in optimism among future sellers. While 40% of recent sellers said they accepted an offer on their home in under two weeks, the Clever Offers survey found that only 18% of future sellers believe they will have the same luck. Only 28% of recent sellers said their home sat on the market for longer than expected.
Those who plan to sell their home this year or next are also looking for opportunities to play it safe. Of the future sellers surveyed, nearly two-thirds (62%) said they have a backup plan in case their home doesn't sell quickly.