Slow and steady improvement in sales as the year wraps up 

The latest home sales numbers indicate the market is moving in the right direction, albeit in a slow, deliberate fashion.

Existing home sales increased 0.5% between October and November, according to the National Association of Realtors. That's the third straight monthly increase, but sales were down 1% compared to a year ago.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 4.13 million last month, which means existing sales are still hovering around 30-year lows.

No post-shutdown surge: The November totals showed no signs of a post-government shutdown jump in sales despite delayed closings getting back on track. The small uptick is more likely tied to mortgage rates, which were around 6.2% in November (compared to around 6.7% in July), prompting some buyers to come off the sidelines.

The 30-year mortgage rate has remained in a tight range for several weeks, averaging 6.21% this past week, according to Freddie Mac.

But even with rates holding steady, "affordability is still a constraint as home prices continue to rise in many places," said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.

The median existing-home sale price in November was $409,200, up 1.2% from a year earlier. It's the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Condo units not moving: Condominium sales have been especially sluggish, NAR's report found. Coming in at an annualized rate of 380,000 in November, sales were down 2.6% compared to a year ago. The median condo sale price was $358,600, up just 0.1% year-over-year.

While condos are roughly $50,000 cheaper than the overall median home price — making them potentially more attractive to budget-conscious buyers — association fees are rising, pushing up total costs, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.

Inventory drops off, but still up from last year: The supply of existing homes declined in November as sellers headed into the holiday season, but it remains 7.5% higher than last year, according to the NAR report. The median time on the market was 36 days, up from 32 days a year ago — a sign that inventory isn't getting much help from new listings at this point in the year.

Monthly supply was down only slightly from October, coming in at 4.2 months, which suggests "the housing market is still more balanced than it was, in line with our expectations for 2025 and 2026," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

While Hale expects mortgage rates to remain around current levels next year, that "will be sufficient to bring about a very modest improvement in affordability, whether we're measuring monthly payments outright or monthly payments relative to incomes," she noted. 

"This should be enough to bump sales modestly higher in 2026, though they'll remain historically low."