What’s a ‘good’ mortgage rate — according to buyers? 

Economists widely expect mortgage rates to plateau or slightly decline this year, and many anticipate that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will hover around 6-6.5% for the next few months at least. 

This could be a challenge for the 2026 housing market, according to a new mortgage rate forecast and survey from Clever Real Estate, which found that prospective buyers are more than likely to alter their plans if rates don't drop below 6%.

Rates have declined over the past three years, dropping from 7.79% in October 2023 to around 6% this January. The consensus from many economists and industry experts is that rates will not fall below 6% this year.

Yet many of today's buyers seem to be holding out for the ultra-low 4% rates not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic — and of the 1,000 prospective buyers surveyed, nearly all (94%) said they will alter their plans to buy this year if sub-6% rates aren't an option.

Buyers want 'good' rates

Overall, buyer expectations are high — and perhaps misguided. About two-thirds of those surveyed expect a mortgage rate under 6% today, with some expecting even lower rates not seen in years. One in 4 buyers are optimistic about finding Great Recession-era rates under 4%, with 37% believing those are the only "good" rates.

Less than half of buyers surveyed aligned with expert predictions — expecting rates to hover between 5% and 7% through 2026 — while 42% of respondents predicted average rates under 5%. 

Some see a 50-year solution

Other buyers are less optimistic. Many say current mortgage rates make homeownership unattainable, and say high rates have delayed their buying plans. A third of those surveyed aren't sure they'd qualify for a mortgage, and about 1 in 7 think they would only be able to get a rate at or above 7%.

This has motivated many buyers to not only improve their financials but to consider a 50-year mortgage, an idea that nearly 1 in 3 respondents were open to. Over a quarter of buyers said they would prefer this option, and 38% said the lower monthly payments that would come with it would be the only way they could afford a mortgage. 

Managing buyer expectations

Buyers' expectations partly stem from their overall grasp of the market, with many believing that the Federal Reserve's funds rate determines mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve made a trio of short-term interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 that did have an impact amid widespread economic uncertainty and concerns about the labor market and inflation.

But other factors — including the potential for an economic downturn and the state of long-term bond yields — also play a role.

"The most underrated factor is bond market sentiment," Best Interest Financial Branch Manager John Donikian said in Clever's report. "How investors feel about growth and inflation expectations matters more than what the Fed says at a press conference. Housing demand data itself is also underrated — it feeds directly back into rate expectations."

Over the past three years, many industry experts thought mortgage rates would drop much more than they did. But persistent inflation kept rates around 6.5%. Going into 2026, the "biggest wildcard" is the labor market, Donikian said.

Overall, experts don't foresee big changes — including rates dipping below 6% — anytime soon.

"I don't see mortgage rates collapsing. I see them moving within a range, with volatility tied to economic data," Donikian said. "Unless the economy clearly breaks or inflation decisively rolls over, rates are more likely to hover in the low- to mid-6% range rather than fall meaningfully below it."