Report: Coming-soons sell for more than private, standard listings
While the median differences vary by price tier and location, a new white paper from ARELLO found that private listings typically sell for less.
Key points:
- A new white paper from ARELLO provides information about private and coming-soon listings to help inform key industry stakeholders as the debate over listing transparency continues.
- Private listings typically sell for less than listings that are either immediately set to active in the MLS or are promoted first as coming-soon listings, ARELLO found.
- Although private listing networks “are not inherently discriminatory,” the regulatory body warned, they do bring fair housing risks that real estate professionals should be aware of.
As the debate over pre-market and private listings has ramped up, large companies with varying stakes in the game have released studies about how private listings perform compared to those that seek broad exposure by listing directly on the MLS from the outset.
Many of those studies have yielded findings in line with the agendas of the companies behind them. But an independent white paper released Sept. 18 by the Association of Real Estate License Law Officials' (ARELLO) Law and Regulation Committee analyzing more than 10 million residential transactions from January 2024 through June 2026 contained more nuanced results.
By and large, the study found that private listings tended to sell for a few thousand dollars less than comparable listings marketed on the MLS, while coming-soon listings typically commanded a few thousand dollars more.
The white paper did not take a stance on private listings or private listing networks. Instead, ARELLO said its goals were to gather evidence, describe differences between listing methods and "identify regulatory questions that may warrant further consideration by state regulators, legislators, MLS organizations, and other stakeholders."
Fewer private listings, more coming-soons over time
The white paper assessed data from Zillow residential sales records, MLS listing volume and HCPL-rate data from MLSs that had at least 5,000 sold residential listings in 2025 and met certain economic-quality filters. Price performance metrics were measured by using the median ratio of actual sale price to expected sale price based on Zillow's Zestimate or Automated Valuation Model (AVM).
Since 2024, ARELLO found that the estimated number of private listings has declined slightly while the number of coming-soon listings has increased.
The total number of transactions involving High-Confidence Private Listings (HCPLs), or listings that showed a high likelihood of being transacted off the MLS, fell 2% year-over-year from 2024 to 2025 (from 88,300 to 86,805) and fell by 3% from the first half of 2025 to the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, coming-soon listings rose 4% on an annual basis from 2024 to 2025 (from 427,648 to 443,245) and surged 13% from the first half of 2025 to the first half of 2026.
Sales price differences vary
Listings placed directly on the MLS in 2024 sold for 0.62% more than expected based on the AVM for that year and 0.95% more than expected in 2025. In comparison, the white paper found that private listings sold for 1.26% less than standard MLS listings in 2024 and for 0.87% less in 2025, while listings that were marketed as coming-soons commanded the best price, selling for 1.38% more than standard MLS listings in 2024 and for 1.16% more in 2025.
The white paper reported similar trends in the first half of 2026, with coming-soons performing even better (selling for 1.55% more than standard MLS listings) than they did last year.
Gaps across price tiers, geographic areas
The price differences between private or coming-soon listings and standard MLS listings varied widely depending on a given listing's price range.
Listings in the lower price tier, which ARELLO defined as the 5th-35th percentiles, suffered the most price-wise when sold as a private listing. Those listings sold 2.13% less (a median difference of $5,055) than standard MLS listings and a median of $9,212 less than coming-soon listings.
Listings in the luxury tier (those in the 95th-100th percentiles) showed the largest monetary gains for coming-soons, which sold for a median $16,85 above standard MLS listings. Private luxury listings, however, typically sold for $3,473 less than standard MLS listings.
When assessing market type, the white paper found that private listings yielded the largest negative price gap in urban markets, selling for about 1.54% less than standard MLS listings. Coming-soon listings created the largest positive price gap in urban areas, selling a median 1.77% more than standard MLS listings (a difference of about $7,825) in urban areas.
Rural markets had the smallest price gaps between listing types, with private listings selling for about 0.81% less than standard MLS listings and coming-soons selling for a median 1.3% more than standard listings.
Fair housing considerations
Although private listing networks "are not inherently discriminatory," the white paper said, "their structure may create conditions relevant to fair housing concerns, particularly where differences in access to housing opportunities have disproportionate adverse effects for members of protected classes."
The private listing versus standard MLS listing price gap is more significant in majority non-white neighborhoods than majority white neighborhoods, the white paper also noted. While private listings sold for a median 0.88% less than standard listings in majority white neighborhoods, they sold for a median 2.21% less in all majority non-white neighborhoods. The price discrepancy was most significant in majority Hispanic neighborhoods, where private listings sold for 3.33% less than MLS listings.
Still, such discrepancies "do not establish causation or unlawful discrimination," the white paper said, adding that its findings should be "interpreted as evidence of an association that warrants further examination of potential access, marketing, and fair housing implications."