Gary Keller rallies KW crowd: ‘There are empires being built’ 

Gary Keller, the co-founder, executive chairman and driving force behind Keller Williams, took the stage at Mega Agent Camp as Professor Gary, explaining the difficult realities of the housing market and when things might turn around (not soon, unfortunately).

Then General Gary took over.

"There are empires being built right now on the bones of individuals who won't get out of bed and get to work," Keller told the nearly 4,000 agents in attendance.

A bracing message, but that's why "this is called Mega Camp, not Average Camp," he said.

There are about 4 million home sale transactions in a year, Keller said. That's 8 million sides, and more than enough for agents to have a great year — even their best year.

But agents should be focused on the long term: "Many people get caught up in having a great year instead of a great career," Keller said. "But your annual production over your lifetime is the average of your production, not your best year."

The KW view of the economy — and the housing market

Taking the long view can also help with agent motivation, and when thinking about the state of the economy and the housing market. Top takeaways from Keller's talk:

• Are we in a recession? Yes and no, according to Keller. The U.S. economy is not in a recession, but real estate is.

• What's going on with the economy? In as non-political a way as possible, Keller walked through inflation (OK for now with some concerning signals), unemployment (could be worse) and stagflation (real bad). Interest rates have slid a bit to 6.5%, and that's all right.

• What is stagflation and why does it matter? Stagflation is what happens when unemployment and inflation both go up, and "the Fed throws up their hands and goes, 'Now what do we do?'" Keller said. "They want people to be employed, and they want things to cost as little as possible."

• Tough choices for the Fed: The Fed is facing pressure to lower interest rates, which can boost the economy. But lowering interest rates can raise inflation, which can push up prices and unemployment — and get politicians un-elected.

• How does this apply to real estate? The overall economy hasn't hit the stagflation point yet, but as Jay Papasan — KW's vice president of strategic content — pointed out, the housing market has: "We have homes that are unaffordable, but we need interest rates to go down so more people can buy them." But if interest rates drop, what's going to happen to home prices? "We've been kind of locked in that trap, you know, ourselves, because we had a supply issue in our industry."

When will things turn around?

The housing market is nearing an inflection point, Keller believes, and he expects to see clearer signals in about a year. "We'll either be coming out of it, or we'll be staying in longer."

Between now and then, "what happens is you get more of a polarization between successful and unsuccessful."

Polarization means more opportunity for those willing to work — "treating the real estate sales industry like a J-O-B," Keller said. "They have a plan." Especially for lead generation, which remains fundamental, he added.

How will AI affect agents?

As with virtually any conversation these days, AI entered the chat.

Keller reminded the audience that 88% of buyers used an agent or broker to transact in 2024. But new data from Cotality showed that while 48% of people said they would prefer to work with a person to find a home, 23% said they would trust an AI tool and 29% said they trust agents and AI equally.

"Comfort" is key, however, with 80% of buyers identifying it as the most important thing to them when working with agents. It's about "how we talk, how we behave, how we offer service and deliver service," Keller said. "Making buyers and sellers feel comfortable with us from the very get-go is the most important thing to them."

Work with AI, agents were told, to get an advantage when you get down to business.