What Fed officials are saying about a December cut 

With two weeks to go until the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) final meeting of 2025, Federal Reserve officials remain divided on whether cutting short-term interest rates for a third time this year would be the right move for the U.S. economy.

At its Dec. 9-10 meeting, the central bank will be missing some key jobs and inflation reports — data that typically helps inform its monetary policy decisions. Even so, some Fed officials have suggested that their concerns about the labor market may be enough to justify another rate cut.

No October inflation report

Days after announcing that it will not release a full October jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said it also won't release an October Consumer Price Index report due to data collection lapses during the federal government shutdown. However, the BLS was able to collect some data for October, which it will include in its November CPI report.

But the release of that report has been postponed until Dec. 18 — the week after the Fed's next meeting. This means that the most recent government-released inflation data available to the Fed will be from September.

The argument for a December rate cut

During a Nov. 21 speech at the 2025 National College Fed Challenge Finals in Washington, D.C., Fed Governor Michael Barr acknowledged that the FOMC's task at its next meeting is "made more challenging" by shutdown-related data delays.

Even so, some Fed officials are voicing support for a December cut to short-term interest rates. Also on Nov. 21, New York Fed President John Williams described the current monetary policy as "modestly restrictive," adding, "I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term."

Fed Governor Christopher Waller agreed during a Nov. 24 appearance on Fox Business. Though Waller acknowledged the difficulty of making policy decisions without recent data, he said information from the private sector indicates there has been little change in the labor market.

"I don't think inflation is a big problem going forward," Waller said. "But the labor market is still weak — we're getting no evidence telling me it's rebounding, despite what the job report from September said." The September employment data indicated that job growth was stronger than expected, but unemployment increased more than expected as well.

At the Fed's December meeting, "I'm advocating for a rate cut," Waller added.

The argument against a December rate cut

Boston Fed President Susan Collins agreed that it's hard to tell how much labor market softening has occurred without recent data. She intends to closely monitor unemployment moving forward.

Collins, who backed both of the Fed's earlier 2025 rate cuts, said during a recent episode of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast that she now views current monetary policy as "only mildly restrictive," adding that it is "appropriate for now."

After viewing the delayed September jobs report released last week, Colins stood by her assessment.

"I do see reasons to be hesitant" heading into the December meeting, she said on Nov. 22, according to CNBC.

With Fed officials still clearly divided, some analysts told Fortune that it's possible the December meeting could end in a historic tie.

What about a January cut?

Even Waller, who has advocated for rate cuts throughout 2025, is cautious about the possibility of a January rate cut. Though theU.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, Waller told Fox Business that he expects those numbers to be revised down by 50,000 or 60,000.

"January's going to be a little trickier, because we're going to get a flood of data that's released," he said, referring to the delayed November inflation and jobs reports.

"If it's kind of consistent with what we've seen, then you could make the case for January," he said, noting that a rise in inflation or a rebounding labor market would in contrast give the Fed pause.

"You may see more of a meeting-by-meeting approach, once you get to January," Waller added.