By the Numbers

After several atypical years, the real estate market is expected to settle into a new normal, with lower rates, more sales and improving affordability.

Panelists at NAR’s economic summit expect a better year overall, but pointed to various wildcards that could tug the market in different directions.

Rates have dropped for a third consecutive week, and buyers appear to be responding. But where rates go next is uncertain, and short-term volatility is likely.

Homeowners who bought in the early 2020s have lots of equity, and life events are motivating moves — even if they have to give up their low mortgage rates.

Fannie Mae’s latest purchase sentiment index is up more than 10 points in the past year, with a record share of consumers expecting mortgage rates to fall.

The good news is that an interest rate cut is still on the table as other signs point to a cooling labor market. The Fed will decide later this month.

Purchase applications and home tours are on the rise as rates drop to the lowest level in six weeks.

Federal policy changes could impact real estate in surprising ways, but economists are predicting fairly modest shifts in the new year.

So far, the pace of home sales has been slower this year, but the fall bump in pending sales could translate to a December rally — if mortgage rates drop.

Buyers found a bit of relief last month, leading to more sales activity — but rising inflation is lurking heading into the holidays.

The turnaround for existing sales came at a time when mortgage rates were closer to 6%. With rates on the rise, economists are dialing back sales forecasts.

The reversal follows 14 years of larger gains for homes in high-risk areas, suggesting that buyers may be less willing to move to disaster-prone regions.

The construction industry expects the new administration to loosen regulations, which could boost sales, though other challenges remain.

With the election over and rates appearing to stabilize, more would-be buyers were looking at homes this past week.

If home price growth continues at the current pace, “America will be completely divided,” said Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The solution? “More supply.”

Yun expects existing sales to rise 9% next year and even more in 2026, though the market has proved difficult to predict in recent years.

Despite a 25-point cut by the central bank, rates rose for a sixth straight week while applications fell sharply.

In the short term, expect "rising and more unpredictable mortgage rates." But the Fed will likely stay the course and issue a modest rate cut this week.

September’s low rates gave pending sales a boost, but as mortgage rates climb for a fifth straight week, enthusiasm is expected to wane.

The latest numbers suggest that, for the third consecutive fall season, rates will crest that dreaded threshold.